5) New England Patriots
Key Additions: Danny Amendola, Adrian Wilson, Tommy Kelly, LeGarrette Blount, Leon Washington
Despite All-Pro Rob Gronkowski's mounting injuries, the Patriots appear to be ready to make a final push in the Belichick-Brady era. In the five games that Gronk did not play last year, the ever-unpredictable Patriots averaged 34.2 points per game. How's that for a statistic? The loss of Welker certainly hurts, but Danny Amendola is a younger, if not better, version of him. The offensive line held steady last season allowing only 27 sacks, tied for fifth best.
The pressure lies solely on the secondary, who gave up 271.4 yards per game, ranked 29th best in the NFL. It is still unknown how effective replacing Patrick Chung with an aging Adrian Wilson will be. 2011 second-round pick, Ras-I Dowling, has been on the trainer's table the last two years with a torn hip tendon and torn quadriceps. That's two years, nine games and one pass defended. Production from this group certainly needs to step up especially with pass-heavy teams like Atlanta, Cincy, New Orleans, Carolina, Denver, Houston, and Miami on their schedule.
Prediction: 12-4 (New England's schedule plays to their favor, having the Jets and Buffalo in their division. The defensive line, anchored by Vince Wilfork, was seventh in yards allowed before the addition of Tommy Kelly)
Sorry, 12-4 because of a weak schedule only gets you #5.
4) Denver Broncos
Key Additions: Wes Welker, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Shaun Phillips
What didn't the Broncos do right last year? The Broncos had one of the best seasons, outscoring opposing defenses by 192 points, which was second only to the New England Patriots. Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Wes Welker look to give opposing secondaries plenty of headaches with Peyton Manning at the helm. Acquiring Montee Ball via the draft and with incumbents McGahee and Moreno looking to return from injuries, the run game should keep defenses on their toes.
So why aren't the Broncos rated higher? My main concern is how small Peyton Manning comes up in the most crucial of situations. Sure it wasn't his fault for blown coverage with 0:42 left in the Divisional Round, but he certainly put them in a position where the score was still in reach. Keep in mind that 14 of their points resulted from two Trindon Holliday specials. A fumble in the third quarter when up 7 and the interception thrown across his body in overtime ultimately cost them a potential Superbowl bid. For everything that Peyton Manning gives you, I certainly would not want the ball in his hands and this has been a trend since Indianapolis.
Prediction: 11-5 (Manning will have a spectacular regular season but will ultimately lose in the AFC championship game to the Texans)
3) Atlanta Falcons
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Key Additions: Steven Jackson, Osi Umenyiora, Desmond Trufant, Robert Alford
Think the Falcons wanted to improve their secondary? Well, the Atlanta Falcons selected two DBs with their first two picks in April's Draft. Washington's Desmond Trufant is one-third of the Trufant NFL bloodline, and Robert Alford (see below), product of FBS Southeastern Lousiana University, has a Youtube highlight reel that drops jaws.
Throughout the playoffs, Matty Ice, showed his ability to be considered an elite NFL quarterback, despite being completely shut down by the 49ers in the second half of the NFC Championship game. Receivers Julio Jones and Roddy White are the best WR tandem in the league, while Tony Gonzalez is still going strong going into his 17th year.
However, the most concerning thing for this team is the ability to close out a game after blowing a 20 point lead to Seattle and 17 to the 49ers. If the Falcons are able to stay consistent throughout the entire game and in pressure-cooker situations, they can certainly make the leap that this #3 ranking places them. Also, playing in division that features the Panthers and a young Buccanneers team works to their advantage.
Prediction: 11-5 (Falcons will easily win the NFC South, but how will they play come playoff time?)
2) San Francisco 49ers
Could it be? The beloved 49ers, who were the perennial favorite going into last season, NOT number one? GM Trent Baalke had a marvelous offseason, turning once-shunned QB Alex Smith into a second-round pick and giving up only sixth-round pick for Anquan Boldin. Filling areas of need with the additions of S Eric Reid, DE Tank Carradine, while stockpiling on talent such as RB Marcus Lattimore, only further solidified Baalke and his staff as one of the best in the NFL.
However, the secondary and special teams really broke down late in the season and were the causes of demise during the Superbowl. Compared to their NFC West rivals in the Pacific Northwest, their secondary seems rather tame. Carlos Rodgers, a Pro Bowler in 2011, was targeted numerous times by opposing quarterbacks, to the likes of which had not been seen since Mike Rumph was in red and gold. Two key members, DT Issac Sopoaga and S Dashon Goldson, left via free agency. While the franchise appears to be ready for the long haul, the most immediate question marks for this powerhouse surround its defense.
Will Justin Smith be able to stay healthy?
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| Justin Smith was an integral part of helping Aldon Smith get 19.5 sacks in the 15 regular season games they played together in 2012. Is Eric Reid ready to step into Dashon Goldson's shoes? |
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| Known for hard-hitting in college, the question remains whether Eric Reid can mature quickly enough to play for a contender. |
Can Nnamdi revive his career?
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| Much has been made of Nnamdi's inability to play zone coverage. San Francisco's primary use of man-coverage should be the last testing ground for this DB who was once considered elite.
Prediction: 10-6 (49ers play a gruesome first five weeks of the season before getting back to full strength and are expected to be without Kendall Hunter and Mario Manningham. Provided they stay healthy, they are one of the favorites to make a repeat appearance to Superbowl XLVIII )
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1) Seattle Seahawks
Key Additions: Percy Harvin, Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett
Enough with the Adderall jokes and the weakness of the NFC West arguments, the Seattle Seahawks have arrived and are here to stay. The San Francisco 49ers, through all the years of mediocrity, were clearly one of the better teams in an underachieving division. That was before Pete Carroll. With the addition of Percy Harvin and the emergence of Russell Wilson as one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the NFL, the Seahawks have built a franchise of a well-rounded team with a smash mouth mentality. Even with Bruce Irvin being suspended for the first four games for a PED violation, newly acquired DE Cliff Avril can certainly fill that void for their front line. Had it not been for Matt Ryan's two play, game-winning drive with 25 seconds left, Superbowl XLVII may have turned out differently. Seattle's defense certainly gives it a legitimate shot for 2013-14. The secondary, which ranked for sixth-best in the league and number one in overall intimidation (ala Richard Sherman, Brandon Browner, Kam Chancellor, and Earl Thomas) is sure to hold up this time, just ask Vernon Davis and Mario Manningham.
Prediction: 11-5 (Homefield advantage will be key for the 12th man of CenturyLink Field, where the Hawks went undefeated last year and are 17-7 overall in the Pete Carroll Era)
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