Will a New Dynasty Emerge?
By Justin Cheng
For at least the next four games, the ultimate battle of styles in the NBA will be tested. One efficiently run half-court offense will be matched up to the uptempo athleticism of LeBron James and company. While the San Antonio Spurs are coming off a dismantling of a very good Memphis Grizzlies team, the Heat are fresh off a seven-game slugfest with the Indiana Pacers. With each of these teams with their own sets of strengths and weaknesses, this is my own take of how each of these teams will match up.
Offense
Miami -- While LeBron's production has been unreal throughout the playoffs, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh's performances have been rather inconsistent. In the conference finals, Wade and Bosh were both regulated to being jump shooters, mostly in part of Roy Hibbert's presence. It wasn't until Game 7 that Wade started to attack the basket and had his best game of the series. Even with Tim Duncan protecting the paint, San Antonio won't have that same intimidating presence in the middle, and it is imperative that the Heat attack the basket often and early in order to avoid playing too much half-court offense.
San Antonio -- Forget the boring arguments, their offense works, and they have all the right players to do it. Tony Parker has again solidified himself as one of the elite point guards in the League, which will force Wade and/or LeBron to pick up Parker at some point in this series. During the regular season, the Spurs sat their own Big 3, and despite taking a loss, absolutely murdered the Heat in the paint. Entry passes to Splitter and Duncan will give the Heat, who do not have a basket protector other than Chris Andersen, migraines.
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| Splitter and Duncan will be the keys for beating the Heat. |
In each of the wins against the Pacers, the Heat forced 20, 10, 17 and 21 turnovers. I don't envision the Spurs turning the ball over that many times, as they have only had 11.7 giveaways throughout the playoffs. This will be key for keeping the Heat in a half-court style offense, which they do not excel in.
Advantage -- Spurs
Defense
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LeBron will look to lock down Tony Parker.
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Miami -- Having LeBron James, who is a five-time All-Defense First Team, that can disrupt your offense by pestering the point guard, is a coach's dream. I am reminded of the 2011 Conference Finals, when LeBron took it upon himself to lock down Derrick Rose. The MVP had a terrible time getting into rhythm, and Parker will face similar difficulties. Players like Battier and Wade also have the ability to lock down key-players.
San Antonio -- In the series with the Warriors, the Spurs had to mask Tony Parker's ineffectiveness on defense by switching Danny Green to guard Stephen Curry. Parker will have to stay on the floor for the Spurs to win, and who he has to guard is a key factor. If the Heat adjust their backcourt to put Wade at the point and Ray Allen at the off guard, it will create nightmares for the Spurs on defense.
Advantage -- Miami
Bench
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Miami's bench has played fantastic.
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Miami -- Norris Cole, Ray Allen, Shane Battier, Chris Andersen, and Joel Anthony. This lineup could probably beat the Bobcats. All seriousness aside, this group has played their roles extremely well, even when they have the top three guys at their positions in the starting lineup. Andersen had a fantastic series against the Pacers and will be just as key to keep Splitter out of the painted area.
San Antonio -- No big names, but you cannot deny their effectiveness. Manu has not had a good playoff run but has still hit big shots when the Spurs desperately needed them. The San Antonio offense has not skipped a beat with Cory Joseph running the point. Matt Bonner seems to hit every shot he takes and slobbering Boris Diaw seems to do his job when called upon.
Advantage -- Tied.
Coaching
Miami -- For Erik Spoelstra, this is new territory as a coach. While Milwaukee, Chicago and Indiana are good teams, their rotations were limited either due to injuries or sheer lack of depth. The Spurs, however, use interchangeable parts and are an efficient machine. Spoelstra has instilled a defense-first philosophy with the Heat, but it will be crucial to manage what players are on the floor to create matchup problems.
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Popovich has the coaching edge.
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San Antonio -- Gregg Popovich has tailored his offense to suit his aging stars and is the best coach in the NBA today. It should not be overlooked during the regular season game against the Heat, that he did it to not tip his own hand. He has optimized the use of his role players, and they run Popovich's offense to pure perfection. Just look at Danny Green, who was nothing more than a waterboy in Cleveland. Now he's playing over 30 minutes a game in the playoffs, taking responsibility for guarding some of the opponent's best players.
Advantage -- San Antonio
Key Players
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Allen and Battier need to take advantage of mismatches.
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Miami -- Ray Allen/Shane Battier will be guarded by Tony Parker in the event that Spoelstra tries to run Wade at point, thus forcing Danny Green move up a spot to guard Wade. Either player will have to take advantage of their size and score. This would be the only conceivable mismatch that the Heat will be presented with.
San Antonio -- Manu Ginobili will have to facilitate the offense for the Spurs if Parker is going to be hounded by LeBron. As previously mentioned, he has not had a good playoffs, and it will be critical for him to pick up the scoring.
Advantage -- Miami
Prediction.
Running plays to have LeBron in the post, attacking Tony Parker on the offensive end and trapping the facilitator past half court will be key things that Miami needs to address. However, San Antonio is an extremely disciplined team on defense and will force the Heat to take jump shots, which they are not extremely effective at. San Antonio will control the pace most of this series, but it will be a grind.
Spurs in 6.
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